Benchmarks · Insurance
Insurance:
the cycle, reserves, yield
17 figures in three layers. The whole US market from the NAIC annual report, including a ten-year combined-ratio series that oscillates around one hundred — the defining property of the industry. Four of the largest carriers from their 2025 filings. Russian lines from the Bank of Russia's first-quarter 2026 review, where compulsory motor has already crossed a hundred.
United States: the market as a whole
United States: the largest carriers
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| P&C combined ratio, Chubb | 85.7% | FY2025 | Chubb Limited, Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 2026-02-27) |
| Property-Liability combined ratio, Allstate | 85.2% | FY2025 | The Allstate Corporation, Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 2026-02-20) |
| Combined ratio, total underwriting operations, Progressive | 87.4% | FY2025 | The Progressive Corporation, Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-02) |
| Combined ratio, The Travelers Companies | 89.9% | FY2025 | The Travelers Companies, Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 2026-02-12) |
| Annual advertising spend, Progressive | $5.1B | FY2025 | The Progressive Corporation, Form 10-K for FY2025 (filed 2026-03-02) |
Russia: lines of business and the market
| Metric | Value | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined ratio, Russian non-life insurance (trailing year) | 91% | Q1 2026 | Bank of Russia, Key performance indicators of insurers, Q1 2026 |
| Combined ratio, Russian motor own-damage insurance (trailing year) | 100% | Q1 2026 | Bank of Russia, Key performance indicators of insurers, Q1 2026 |
| Combined ratio, Russian compulsory motor liability (trailing year) | 103% | Q1 2026 | Bank of Russia, Key performance indicators of insurers, Q1 2026 |
| Russian insurance market premiums per quarter | 941.6B ₽ | Q1 2026 | Bank of Russia, Key performance indicators of insurers, Q1 2026 |
How to read this
What matters about these numbers
- Ten years of the US combined ratio fit inside seven percentage points — 96.9 to 103.9 — and those seven points decide the sign of the result. A carrier model with a fixed combined ratio denies the cycle, which is the defining property of the industry.
- The expense side barely moves; all the risk sits in losses. Over ten years expenses drifted from 27.8 to 25.2 per cent of premium while the loss ratio swung between 69.3 and 76.4. That tells you where a model needs a scenario and where a constant will do.
- The sign on reserve development runs against intuition: in the NAIC series a negative figure means favourable development — prior-year reserves proved more than enough. The market has been releasing redundant reserves for ten years running.
- Denominators differ. NAIC measures reserve development against prior-year SURPLUS, carriers measure it against premium. The loss ratio is struck on earned premium and the expense ratio on written premium; the combined ratio adds two bases together, which matters when you decompose it.
- Written premium exceeds earned (1.033), and the difference is the increase in the unearned premium reserve. An insurer collects cash before it recognises revenue: a source of working capital rather than profit, and one that models usually omit entirely.
- Market and carrier figures follow different rules: NAIC is statutory and calendar-year, the carriers report under GAAP, and the Bank of Russia uses its own trailing-year method. Three coordinate systems — direct comparison is not valid.
- No one in the industry discloses customer acquisition cost. The closest available figure is Progressive's $5.1 billion advertising spend: a direct writer buys the customer with advertising instead of agent commission, and it shows in an expense ratio three points below Travelers'.
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Rootsmodel assembles a carrier model — written and earned premium with the unearned reserve, loss and expense ratios by line, claim payout triangles, investment income on reserves and capital adequacy — with live Excel formulas.